← GFM - Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at GFM - Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-0-3
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.6%
avg ELO +6.1 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1188
Q3 1412
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Zander | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
